Conversation · Visual Calculus

The island in the bay.

The island in the bay.

Blink. [Leave.]

Have a look at point B' -- the boardwalk.

Seven hundred metres away. The likeliest of these B positions, 20% chance. A skilled sniper could have made the shot, provided he had a safe sniper's nest. Even with the light on inside, we're talking military training. At that distance the perpetrator would have had to take wind direction into account.

This would explain why no one heard the gunshot -- the bullet came from far away.

I've sort of ruled out this location.

Indeed, there was a possible sniper's nest underneath the boardwalk but no one had been there in months, if not years.

It still remains an odd coincidence that there was a bunker there...

Where does the thread lead?

Have a look at point A' -- the roof.

Ruby ruled this out vehemently. The shot would have been heard from downstairs -- where no one heard it. The likelihood of A' has fallen drastically. You may be looking for a sniper.

The shot had to come from a greater distance -- beyond A'. Should we extrapolate to include every possible point of origin in Martinaise?

The ray cast from the man's mouth unravels into a fan of possible directions, all on the roof at first. The shot could have come from any of them. This is composite location A prime -- most likely of the origin points.

So I'm what... 80% sure the roof is where the shot was made from?

72%. With an antique weapon that fires military-grade ammunition -- a Belle-Magrave rifle, for example. This is a good short distance, but not too short. The perpetrator aimed with their back against the railing, or possibly kneeling for precision. This would explain why it only took them one shot.

The lights were on in here. Outside it was dark. It was like shooting fish in an aquarium -- a well lit aquarium. The victim opened his mouth to let the bullet in. Neither of them would have seen anything outside, in the darkness -- too busy with their own bodies.

Could the shot have come from inside the room? A closer point...

Point X would contradict the woman's testimony, rendering the entire proposition void. These figures would be wiped out, detective.

Are there any arguments against A prime, the roof?

None that you've found thus far. But that doesn't mean there aren't any.

Could there have been another point of origin -- further away? (Conclude.)

That's a 28%, yes. In this model the shot could have come from a greater distance. Nothing excludes the possibility. Should we extrapolate to include every possible point of origin in Martinaise?

72%. With a weapon that fires jacketed ammunition -- likely a rifle. This is a good short distance, but not too short. The perpetrator aimed with their back against the railing, or possibly kneeling for precision. This would explain why it only took them one shot.

72%. With a weapon that's good for medium range, like a rifle or sports pistol. This is a good short distance, but not too short. The perpetrator aimed with their back against the railing, or possibly kneeling for precision. This would explain why it only took them one shot.

Shouldn't there be gun residue outside?

There could've been. Then the rain and slush and wind washed it away. This was more than a week ago.

"Kim, do you think the shot could have come from further than the roof? In Martinaise?"

"From where, precisely?"

"Never mind."

"Okay."

"Let's say: B prime (the boardwalk); B double prime (Land's End); B triple prime (the islet)."

"I see you have given this a lot of thought," he remarks, raising an eyebrow. "Are those the locations you've singled out, in addition to the roof? And what is the likelihood, in your opinion, that it came from a further distance?"

"It's okay."

"Okay. Well, we should see if there is gunshot residue or sniper nests if we go down the coast. Rule these spots out -- one by one."

"It would be the diligent thing to do. Until then -- personally -- I'm going with the roof version. A simple hypothesis can be wrong, but it's something to build on."

"I'm just being thorough."

"Much less than from the roof, but still."

The same two neon lit shapes -- a man and a woman. A ray of backward motion explodes from the man's mouth, through the window, to the roof outside, widening into a radius -- A prime.

You see the same two neon lit shapes -- a man and a woman. Only now a red thread bisects the room, pointing from the antenna outside, to the cupboard on the wall.

"This is ballistics. She's left a trajectory for us..." The lieutenant tests the thread with his finger. Drawn taut, it rebounds instantly.

A ray of backward motion explodes from the man's mouth: through the window, to the roof outside, widening into a radius -- A prime.

"Oh, oh!" The kid gets excited. "Cuno knows this shit -- ballistics shit, Science Radio shit. Shows where the shot came from."

This is amateur ballistics. She left a trajectory for you...

You see the same two neon lit shapes -- a man and a woman. Only now a red thread bisects the room, pointing from the antenna outside, to the cupboard on the wall.

Light from the desk lamp reflects off the glass in an untarnished golden halo. The glass is pristine and utterly silent.

"We need to do ballistics on this -- understand where the shot came from once and for all."

Run your finger across the surface of the glass.

The glass is cold from the air flowing in.

Smooth as ice. There are spots of mud and rain on the outside. Even smudges. But the surface of the window is clear from the inside. No chips, no hairline fractures.

Following your lead, the lieutenant leans in closer to inspect the surface.

The boy breathes on the glass and writes something on the fogged up surface, then wipes it all away with his sleeve.

He wrote: The Cunn.

What happened here?

The golden light melts away into the blue, glassy darkness of your mind. In it are two neon lit shapes: a man and a woman on the single bed.

A two-hearted spider.

What position are they in?

The man is kneeling, the woman is on her back. It's the night of March 4th and a shot has just been fired.

The man looks directly at the woman. The shot's possible directions converge in his mouth -- a ray cast from somewhere outside, entering his brain.

Ending him.